As of June 11th, the Tigers have hit 60 home runs in 2012. 40 of these were solo, 15 came with one man on, five came with two on and they are yet to hit a grand slam. In order to compare this percentage historically I decided to use two different measures: the percentage of all home runs that are solo and the average number of runs scored on each HR.
- Solo HR %: 66.7%
- Runs Per HR: 1.42
The next step was to go through all game logs from 1919-2011 to see what kind of numbers we'd expect a team to have. The following graph gives an idea of the trend over time. The data were smoothed by taking the three-year average of each year in order to eliminate some of the year-to-year noise. As we'd expect, Runs per HR and Solo HR % are very closely related:
The Tigers 2012 numbers (66.7% solo, 1.42 runs/HR) are much worse than we'd expect from the 2009-2011 MLB three-year average (58.2% solo, 1.58 runs/HR). But how much impact has this had on their run scoring? For the purpose of this article, we're not trying to determine why a team under-performs but to what extent. I would guess that the why could be explained by some combination of team-wide OBP, lineup construction and pure luck but we'll leave this question for another day.
To determine how the Tigers poor HR performance has impacted total run scoring, we'll first calculate the number of runs they've scored on HRs:
Detroit 2012 Runs on HRs = 40 + (15*2) + (5*3) = 85 Runs
Now, we'll compare this to how many runs we'd expect them to have scored based on the three-year AL average performance of 1.57 runs per HR.
Detroit 2012 Expected Runs on HR = 60 * 1.57 = 94.4 Runs
So Detroit's HRs have under-performed in 2012 by 9.4 runs. We can go further and convert these runs into wins by using baseball's pythagorean theorem to determine how many games a team should win based on runs scored and runs given up.
Detroit Expected Record with Actual Runs Scored (263) = 28.3 - 31.7
Detroit Expected Record with Expected Runs on HR (272.4) = 29.3 - 30.7
Therefore, we would have expected the Tigers to win one full game more had they scored the expected number of runs on HRs.
We could explain the Tigers 2012 HR performance thusly:
HR Runs vs. Expected (60 games): -9.4
HR Runs vs. Expected (projected full season): -25.4
HR Wins vs. Expected (60 games): -1.0
HR Wins vs. Expected (project full season): -2.7
Now, having defined our two metrics, let's look at historic results to see how Detroit compares. I took the process described above and applied it to every team's season from 1919-2011. Each team was compared to its three-year league average (AL and NL calculated separately). The +/- runs listed are the actual values while the +/- wins have been scaled to a 162 game season to put each team on a level playing field. I have listed the best 10 and worst 10 teams all-time by each measure. Since our +/- metric is cumulative, the top 10 list is dominated by recent teams (more HR = higher/lower cumulative values) so I have also provided the top 10 by rate.
If you'd prefer to explore the numbers yourself, you can find all team seasons in spreadsheet form here.
How do the 2012 Tigers compare?
- Runs/HR of 1.42 is bad enough to measure 34th worst all-time and worst since the 2001 New York Mets.
- Solo HR % of 66.7% is 55th worst all-time and worst since the 2005 Washington Nationals
- Run Differential at current pace of -25.4 would rank 9th worst all-time and worst since the 2009 Texas Rangers.
- Win Differential at current pace of -2.7 would rank 10th worst all-time and worst since the 2006 Devil Rays.
So while there are many factors contributing to the Tigers struggles, wasting home runs by hitting them without any baserunners is a not-so-insignificant one.
Worst Runs/HR
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1921 | 1.29 | 77.97% | 59 | -19.98 | -2.24 | -0.339 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1924 | 1.33 | 75.00% | 36 | -11.20 | -1.27 | -0.311 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1943 | 1.33 | 72.73% | 33 | -8.19 | -1.02 | -0.248 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1932 | 1.33 | 69.44% | 36 | -11.66 | -1.22 | -0.324 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1929 | 1.36 | 71.43% | 28 | -9.16 | -1.04 | -0.327 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1927 | 1.36 | 71.43% | 28 | -8.60 | -0.95 | -0.307 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1957 | 1.36 | 67.39% | 92 | -17.90 | -2.15 | -0.195 |
| Houston Astros | 1980 | 1.36 | 72.00% | 75 | -16.24 | -1.84 | -0.217 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1944 | 1.36 | 70.91% | 55 | -16.32 | -2.07 | -0.297 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1991 | 1.37 | 69.12% | 68 | -14.45 | -1.62 | -0.212 |
Best Runs/HR
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Washington Senators | 1935 | 1.97 | 34.38% | 32 | +9.44 | +0.91 | +0.295 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1943 | 1.95 | 38.10% | 42 | +13.90 | +1.56 | +0.331 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1949 | 1.92 | 42.05% | 88 | +21.69 | +2.24 | +0.246 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1931 | 1.90 | 33.33% | 21 | +5.23 | +0.62 | +0.249 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1995 | 1.90 | 43.75% | 128 | +35.02 | +3.80 | +0.274 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1926 | 1.89 | 29.63% | 27 | +6.52 | +0.67 | +0.241 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1923 | 1.88 | 44.07% | 59 | +14.32 | +1.30 | +0.243 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1919 | 1.88 | 42.42% | 33 | +7.64 | +1.01 | +0.231 |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1945 | 1.88 | 38.60% | 57 | +12.62 | +1.25 | +0.221 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1938 | 1.87 | 46.94% | 98 | +15.26 | +1.37 | +0.156 |
Worst Solo HR %
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1921 | 1.29 | 77.97% | 59 | -19.98 | -2.24 | -0.339 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1920 | 1.41 | 77.27% | 22 | -5.24 | -0.60 | -0.238 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1924 | 1.33 | 75.00% | 36 | -11.20 | -1.27 | -0.311 |
| Philadelphia Athletics | 1943 | 1.46 | 73.08% | 26 | -3.12 | -0.39 | -0.120 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1943 | 1.33 | 72.73% | 33 | -8.19 | -1.02 | -0.248 |
| Montreal Expos | 1998 | 1.39 | 72.11% | 147 | -28.43 | -3.12 | -0.193 |
| Houston Astros | 1980 | 1.36 | 72.00% | 75 | -16.24 | -1.84 | -0.217 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1927 | 1.36 | 71.43% | 28 | -8.60 | -0.95 | -0.307 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1929 | 1.36 | 71.43% | 28 | -9.16 | -1.04 | -0.327 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1944 | 1.36 | 70.91% | 55 | -16.32 | -2.07 | -0.297 |
Best Solo HR %
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Cleveland Indians | 1926 | 1.89 | 29.63% | 27 | +6.52 | +0.67 | +0.241 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1931 | 1.90 | 33.33% | 21 | +5.23 | +0.62 | +0.249 |
| Washington Senators | 1935 | 1.97 | 34.38% | 32 | +9.44 | +0.91 | +0.295 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1933 | 1.81 | 35.09% | 57 | +7.28 | +0.78 | +0.128 |
| Washington Senators | 1939 | 1.73 | 36.36% | 44 | +1.72 | +0.19 | +0.039 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1931 | 1.81 | 37.04% | 27 | +3.77 | +0.38 | +0.139 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1939 | 1.72 | 37.50% | 64 | +1.96 | +0.20 | +0.031 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1920 | 1.69 | 37.50% | 16 | +1.21 | +0.16 | +0.075 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1943 | 1.95 | 38.10% | 42 | +13.90 | +1.56 | +0.331 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1936 | 1.82 | 38.33% | 60 | +9.90 | +0.97 | +0.165 |
Worst Performances by Run Diff
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Texas Rangers | 2001 | 1.46 | 65.45% | 246 | -34.61 | -3.08 | -0.141 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1987 | 1.41 | 69.52% | 187 | -30.99 | -3.00 | -0.166 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 2006 | 1.46 | 61.58% | 190 | -30.34 | -3.15 | -0.160 |
| Kansas City Athletics | 1957 | 1.41 | 68.67% | 166 | -29.67 | -3.59 | -0.179 |
| Montreal Expos | 1998 | 1.39 | 72.11% | 147 | -28.43 | -3.12 | -0.193 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1998 | 1.48 | 63.80% | 221 | -27.77 | -2.63 | -0.126 |
| Texas Rangers | 2009 | 1.47 | 64.73% | 224 | -26.57 | -2.59 | -0.119 |
| New York Mets | 2001 | 1.41 | 68.03% | 147 | -25.57 | -2.87 | -0.174 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1991 | 1.42 | 63.91% | 133 | -24.96 | -2.67 | -0.188 |
| Minnesota Twins | 2001 | 1.45 | 68.29% | 164 | -24.74 | -2.45 | -0.151 |
Best Performances by Run Diff
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Cleveland Indians | 1999 | 1.83 | 43.54% | 209 | +45.72 | +3.78 | +0.219 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1995 | 1.90 | 43.75% | 128 | +35.02 | +3.80 | +0.274 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1996 | 1.76 | 50.20% | 245 | +34.38 | +2.90 | +0.140 |
| New York Yankees | 1962 | 1.74 | 47.24% | 199 | +31.78 | +3.04 | +0.160 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1970 | 1.78 | 44.44% | 153 | +31.54 | +3.21 | +0.206 |
| Seattle Mariners | 2000 | 1.76 | 50.51% | 198 | +29.92 | +2.66 | +0.151 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2000 | 1.71 | 54.04% | 235 | +29.39 | +2.66 | +0.125 |
| Anaheim Angels | 2004 | 1.78 | 46.91% | 162 | +29.36 | +2.79 | +0.181 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1998 | 1.77 | 47.83% | 161 | +29.34 | +2.75 | +0.182 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1962 | 1.74 | 47.57% | 185 | +27.95 | +2.75 | +0.151 |
Worst Performances by Win Diff
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Kansas City Athletics | 1957 | 1.41 | 68.67% | 166 | -29.67 | -3.59 | -0.179 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 2006 | 1.46 | 61.58% | 190 | -30.34 | -3.15 | -0.160 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1994 | 1.45 | 64.75% | 139 | -24.15 | -3.12 | -0.174 |
| Montreal Expos | 1998 | 1.39 | 72.11% | 147 | -28.43 | -3.12 | -0.193 |
| Texas Rangers | 2001 | 1.46 | 65.45% | 246 | -34.61 | -3.08 | -0.141 |
| New York Giants | 1956 | 1.39 | 66.21% | 145 | -24.24 | -3.07 | -0.167 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1987 | 1.41 | 69.52% | 187 | -30.99 | -3.00 | -0.166 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1994 | 1.40 | 67.89% | 109 | -19.36 | -2.88 | -0.178 |
| New York Mets | 2001 | 1.41 | 68.03% | 147 | -25.57 | -2.87 | -0.174 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1991 | 1.42 | 63.91% | 133 | -24.96 | -2.67 | -0.188 |
Best Performances by Win Diff
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1995 | 1.90 | 43.75% | 128 | +35.02 | +3.80 | +0.274 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1999 | 1.83 | 43.54% | 209 | +45.72 | +3.78 | +0.219 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1970 | 1.78 | 44.44% | 153 | +31.54 | +3.21 | +0.206 |
| New York Yankees | 1962 | 1.74 | 47.24% | 199 | +31.78 | +3.04 | +0.160 |
| San Diego Padres | 1989 | 1.78 | 50.00% | 120 | +25.52 | +2.96 | +0.213 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1996 | 1.76 | 50.20% | 245 | +34.38 | +2.90 | +0.140 |
| Cleveland Indians | 2002 | 1.72 | 53.13% | 192 | +27.38 | +2.82 | +0.143 |
| Anaheim Angels | 2004 | 1.78 | 46.91% | 162 | +29.36 | +2.79 | +0.181 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1998 | 1.77 | 47.83% | 161 | +29.34 | +2.75 | +0.182 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1962 | 1.74 | 47.57% | 185 | +27.95 | +2.75 | +0.151 |
Worst Performances by Runs/HR Diff
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1921 | 1.29 | 77.97% | 59 | -19.98 | -2.24 | -0.339 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1929 | 1.36 | 71.43% | 28 | -9.16 | -1.04 | -0.327 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1932 | 1.33 | 69.44% | 36 | -11.66 | -1.22 | -0.324 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1924 | 1.33 | 75.00% | 36 | -11.20 | -1.27 | -0.311 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1927 | 1.36 | 71.43% | 28 | -8.60 | -0.95 | -0.307 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1944 | 1.36 | 70.91% | 55 | -16.32 | -2.07 | -0.297 |
| Washington Senators | 1931 | 1.39 | 69.39% | 49 | -14.09 | -1.29 | -0.288 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1943 | 1.33 | 72.73% | 33 | -8.19 | -1.02 | -0.248 |
| Boston Braves | 1922 | 1.41 | 68.75% | 32 | -7.75 | -0.87 | -0.242 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1942 | 1.38 | 68.00% | 50 | -11.92 | -1.44 | -0.238 |
Best Performances by Runs/HR Diff
| Team | Year | Runs/HR | Solo HR% | Total HRs | Run Diff | Win Diff | Runs/HR Diff |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1943 | 1.95 | 38.10% | 42 | +13.90 | +1.56 | +0.331 |
| Washington Senators | 1935 | 1.97 | 34.38% | 32 | +9.44 | +0.91 | +0.295 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1976 | 1.86 | 40.74% | 81 | +23.04 | +2.40 | +0.284 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1995 | 1.90 | 43.75% | 128 | +35.02 | +3.80 | +0.274 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1931 | 1.90 | 33.33% | 21 | +5.23 | +0.62 | +0.249 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1949 | 1.92 | 42.05% | 88 | +21.69 | +2.24 | +0.246 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1923 | 1.88 | 44.07% | 59 | +14.32 | +1.30 | +0.243 |
| Cleveland Indians | 1926 | 1.89 | 29.63% | 27 | +6.52 | +0.67 | +0.241 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1919 | 1.88 | 42.42% | 33 | +7.64 | +1.01 | +0.231 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1962 | 1.81 | 43.52% | 108 | +24.24 | +2.60 | +0.224 |
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