Feel free to skip to Top 10 duels of all-time or view Top 25 for each decade and Top 100 of all-time in spreadsheet form.
Introduction
After my last post involving pitching duels, my brother Dusty emailed me with the question "Where are the no-hitters?" I hadn't noticed the absence, but he was right. Why wouldn't the supposed list of best pitching duels not include any no-hitters? And so, at the risk of beating this subject to death, I'll devote this post once more to the subject of pitching duels. More specifically: to pitching duels involving no-hitters.
In analyzing my list of pitching duels (described here, data in spreadsheet form here), I found that there were three no-hitters listed in the top 100: Bob Feller / Allie Reynolds (#41), Josh Johnson / Roy Halladay (#49) and Gaylord Perry / Bob Gibson (#90).
The No-Hitters
My first step was to isolate all no-hitters in history and give them a duel score according to my previously described method. You can view the full list of no-hitters by decade and all-time here. The top-10 are:
10. Bob Feller (Indians) @ Eddie Smith (White Sox)
4/16/1940. Indians 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 8 SO
Eddie Smith: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO
9. Robin Roberts (Phillies) @ Jim Wilson (Braves)
6/12/1954. Braves 2-0. 9 innings
Robin Roberts: 8.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO
Jim Wilson: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO
8. Frank Tanana (Angels) @ Dennis Eckersley (Indians)
5/30/1977. Indians 1-0. 9 innings
Frank Tanana: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO
Dennis Eckersley: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 SO
7. Tim Belcher (Dodgers) @ Tom Browning (Reds)
9/16/1988. Reds 1-0. 9 innings
Tim Belcher: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 SO
Tom Browning: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO
6. Jose Jimenez (Cardinals) @ Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
6/25/1999. Cardinals 1-0. 9 innings
Jose Jimenez: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO
Randy Johnson: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 SO
5. Bob Feller (Indians) @ Bill Bevens (Yankees)
4/30/1946. Indians 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 11 SO
Bill Bevens: 9.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 SO
4. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks) @ Mike Hampton (Braves)
5/18/2004. Diamondbacks 2-0. 9 innings
Randy Johnson: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 SO
Mike Hampton: 9.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO
3. Bob Gibson (Cardinals) @ Gaylord Perry (Giants)
9/17/1968. Giants 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Gibson: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 SO
Gaylord Perry: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 SO
2. Roy Halladay (Phillies) @ Josh Johnson (Marlins)
5/29/2010. Phillies 1-0. 9 innings
Roy Halladay: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 SO
Josh Johnson: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO
1. Allie Reynolds (Yankees) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
7/12/1951. Yankees 1-0. 9 innings
Allie Reynolds: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO
The Problem
After looking over the duel scores for all of these no-hitters, I determined the main reasons for the lack of no-hitters at the top of the list to be:
- With the number of no-hitters being so low (~20 per decade), the chances aren't great that the game will involve two good pitchers in the midst of good seasons and that the opposing pitcher will also pitch a good game.
- In the Game Score formula, walks are worth -1 point, strikeouts 1 point and hits -2 points. In other words, strikeouts and walks are seen as half as important as hits. This means that a 4-hitter with a lot of strikeouts and no walks would be worth more than a no-hitter with few strikeouts and a couple of walks.
- No-hitters are typically 9-inning games. Since Game Score credits number of innings, a higher score is given for an extra-inning game than a comparable 9-inning game. Since the duel score uses the game score for both the starting pitcher and for all team pitchers, this effect is compounded.
The Solution
The idea that a hit against is worth twice as much as a strikeout or walk in the Game Score seems about right to me. In the context of pitching duels, however, I believe that the difference between 0 hits and 1 hit is much greater than the difference between 1 hit and 2 hits. A duel is about the magnitude of the event, and what event has more magnitude than a no-hitter?
To address these issue, I decided to introduce a "bonus" score to give credit for an achievement beyond the pure numbers. Numerically 2-1 = 1-0, but in the context of hits in baseball game, we all know this is not true. I experimented with a number of different values for the bonus. If the bonus was too low, I didn't feel the no-hitters were raised in stature enough. Too high and some otherwise weak matchups were elevated too high. I finally settled on the following bonus points:
- 25 points for a no-hitter
- 10 more points for a perfect game.
- NOTE that both of these achievements require the starting pitcher to pitch a complete game.
Onto the issue of extra-inning games. Should an extra-inning game be considered more of a duel than a 9-inning game? All else being about equal, I say yes. Since both pitching staffs get credited for these extra innings, however, I think the compensation is a bit too high. I debated how exactly to compensate for this. Scaling an extra-inning game down to 9-inning stats didn't seem fair.
Ultimately I decided to introduce a 10-point bonus when the starting pitcher pitches a complete game. Since most extremely-long games involve the bullpen, this not only evens things up a bit (while still maintaining some advantage to extra-inning games) but also rewards a pitcher for pitching the full game, which seems right in the context of pitching duels.
An unintended side-effect of this bonus is that it lowered the comparative score of modern-day games a bit since complete games are less common than they once were. At one point I was worried that my original list was a bit top heavy with games in the last 20 years so I actually like this effect.
The Results
You can view the full results in spreadsheet form here. I have highlighted the no-hitters on the 'All-Time' tab so you can see where they lie; there are now 8 that crack the top-100. There is now a "Bonus" column for both Home and Visitor with all of the discussed bonuses added together (10 for complete game, 25 for no-hitter + 10 more for perfect game).
Here is the new top-10. It doesn't differ a ton from the old list but I have included their old rankings in parenthesis so you can compare. Allie Reynolds' no-hitter against Bob Feller cracked the list at #10 but the rest of the differences are due to a few non complete games getting dropped a few spots which, as discussed above, I don't think is a bad thing.
10(41). Allie Reynolds (Yankees) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
7/12/1951. Yankees 1-0. 9 innings
Allie Reynolds: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO
9(3). Rudy May (Angels) @ Vida Blue (Athletics)
7/9/1971. Athletics 1-0. 20 innings
Rudy May: 12.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 13 SO
Vida Blue: 11.0 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 17 SO
8(8). Tex Carleton (Cardinals) @ Carl Hubbell (Giants)
7/2/1933. Giants 1-0. 18 innings
Tex Carleton: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 7 SO
Carl Hubbell: 18.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO
7(7). Jim Bunning (Phillies) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)
5/26/1966. Giants 1-0. 14 innings
Jim Bunning: 10.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO
Juan Marichal: 14.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO
6(10). Pedro Martinez (Red Sox) @ Roger Clemens (Yankees)
5/28/2000. Red Sox 2-0. 9 innings
Pedro Martinez: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO
Roger Clemens: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 13 SO
5(2). Greg Maddux (Braves) @ Curt Schilling (Phillies)
4/10/1998. Phillies 1-0. 9 innings
Greg Maddux: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO
Curt Schilling: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO
4(6). Tex Hughson (Red Sox) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
6/21/1946. Red Sox 1-0. 9 innings
Tex Hughson: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO
3(5). Hal Newhouser (Tigers) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
9/22/1946. Tigers 3-0. 9 innings
Hal Newhouser: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 SO
2(4). Warren Spahn (Braves) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)
7/2/1963. Giants 1-0. 16 innings
Warren Spahn: 15.1 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO
Juan Marichal: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 SO
1(1). John Tudor (Cardinals) @ Dwight Gooden (Mets)
9/11/1985. Cardinals 1-0. 10 innings
John Tudor: 10.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO
Dwight Gooden: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO
And... I'm done. Hope you enjoyed it. In my next post, I look at the greatest postseason pitching duels of all-time.
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