Career Pitching Rivalries

In my previous series of posts - using a method devised by Bill James as a starting point - I developed a method to determine the greatest single-game pitching duels of all-time.  In this post, I build upon this method to come up with the greatest pitching rivalries of all-time: those pairs of pitchers that had the most memorable matchups throughout their careers.

Since I understand my natural inclination toward wordiness, I'll lead off with the lists (which are pretty interesting: 1990-2010 or All-Time) and then give the explanation of my method below for those of you still interested.  I have decided that from now on when I have a Top 10 list, in addition to the top 10 I will also list at least one entry per team.  I know when I see a top-whatever list I usually end up browsing down to see if my favorite team (Tigers) is listed.  This way, no one will ever be disappointed.  Except, of course, for Rays fans who will find their highest ranked rivalry of all-time coming in at #1,532.  You can also see the complete decade-by-decade top-50 lists in spreadsheet form here.

Top 10 Pitching Rivalries, 1990-2010

1. Curt Schilling (Diamondbacks, Phillies) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves)
5/15/1993 to 8/17/2003. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 93.7
Schilling (5-4): 5-3, 64.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 49 H, 10 BB, 65 SO, 0.917 WHIP, .208/.240/.292
Maddux (4-5): 4-3, 66.2 IP, 1.49 ERA, 49 H, 11 BB, 48 SO, 0.900 WHIP, .206/.243/.277
Best Game: Braves @ Phillies (4/10/1998). Phillies 1-0

2. Pedro Martinez (Red Sox) vs. Bartolo Colon (Angels, Indians)
7/15/1998 to 10/6/2004. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 88.8
Martinez (6-1): 5-0, 52.0 IP, 1.56 ERA, 34 H, 8 BB, 61 SO, 0.808 WHIP, .187/.227/.214
Colon (1-6): 0-3, 49.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 47 H, 19 BB, 51 SO, 1.329 WHIP, .250/.322/.372
Best Game: Indians @ Red Sox (7/15/1998). Red Sox 1-0

3. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks) vs. Tom Glavine (Braves, Mets)
4/10/1999 to 5/12/2004. 8 games. Rivalry Score = 87.0
Johnson (4-4): 3-4, 56.0 IP, 4.34 ERA, 51 H, 14 BB, 85 SO, 1.161 WHIP, .236/.283/.481
Glavine (4-4): 4-3, 52.2 IP, 2.91 ERA, 48 H, 16 BB, 30 SO, 1.215 WHIP, .244/.303/.381
Best Game: Braves @ Diamondbacks (9/15/2000). Diamondbacks 2-1

4. Roger Clemens (Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays) vs. Bret Saberhagen (Red Sox, Royals)
7/31/1987 to 9/12/1999. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 86.0
Clemens (5-1): 4-1, 48.0 IP, 1.13 ERA, 29 H, 13 BB, 53 SO, 0.875 WHIP, .172/.238/.231
Saberhagen (1-5): 0-4, 37.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 40 H, 9 BB, 21 SO, 1.301 WHIP, .284/.329/.496
Best Game: Royals @ Red Sox (4/18/1991). Red Sox 1-0

5. Mike Mussina (Yankees) vs. Pedro Martinez (Red Sox, Mets)
5/24/2001 to 5/20/2006. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 85.7
Mussina (6-4): 3-3, 73.0 IP, 2.22 ERA, 49 H, 14 BB, 77 SO, 0.863 WHIP, .187/.228/.309
Martinez (4-6): 3-4, 70.0 IP, 3.47 ERA, 59 H, 24 BB, 80 SO, 1.186 WHIP, .223/.305/.336
Best Game: Red Sox @ Yankees (7/7/2003). Yankees 2-1

6. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs) vs. Darryl Kile (Rockies, Astros, Cardinals)
7/20/1991 to 5/5/2002. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 84.5
Maddux (6-3): 6-2, 70.0 IP, 1.67 ERA, 52 H, 9 BB, 46 SO, 0.871 WHIP, .211/.244/.280
Kile (3-6): 2-6, 62.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 51 H, 22 BB, 47 SO, 1.171 WHIP, .218/.282/.338
Best Game: Astros @ Braves (9/30/1997. NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Braves 2-1

7. Roger Clemens (Yankees) vs. Pedro Martinez (Red Sox)
10/16/1999 to 10/16/2003. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 84.2
Clemens (4-2): 1-2, 27.0 IP, 4.67 ERA, 28 H, 10 BB, 28 SO, 1.407 WHIP, .262/.325/.458
Martinez (2-4): 2-1, 43.1 IP, 2.49 ERA, 34 H, 9 BB, 51 SO, 0.992 WHIP, .214/.273/.346
Best Game: Red Sox @ Yankees (5/28/2000). Red Sox 2-0

8. Andy Benes (Diamondbacks, Padres, Cardinals) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs)
5/6/1990 to 9/18/1998. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 83.5
Benes (6-4): 4-2, 75.1 IP, 2.27 ERA, 50 H, 16 BB, 49 SO, 0.876 WHIP, .184/.229/.268
Maddux (4-6): 3-4, 73.0 IP, 2.59 ERA, 69 H, 15 BB, 53 SO, 1.151 WHIP, .255/.295/.303
Best Game: Cubs @ Padres (5/22/1992). Padres 2-0

9. Orel Hershiser (Indians, Dodgers) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs)
7/10/1987 to 10/26/1995. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 82.7
Hershiser (4-3): 3-3, 54.2 IP, 2.14 ERA, 38 H, 12 BB, 34 SO, 0.915 WHIP, .193/.239/.274
Maddux (3-4): 2-2, 51.2 IP, 2.26 ERA, 41 H, 16 BB, 27 SO, 1.103 WHIP, .223/.289/.337
Best Game: Indians @ Braves (10/21/1995. WS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Braves 3-2

10. Curt Schilling (Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Phillies) vs. Matt Morris (Cardinals)
7/31/1997 to 10/24/2004. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 82.0
Schilling (5-1): 4-1, 48.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 29 H, 9 BB, 48 SO, 0.792 WHIP, .171/.212/.253
Morris (1-5): 1-3, 36.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 42 H, 15 BB, 24 SO, 1.569 WHIP, .290/.362/.414
Best Game: Cardinals @ Diamondbacks (10/9/2001. NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Diamondbacks 1-0

11. Dave Stewart (Athletics, Rangers, Blue Jays) vs. Roger Clemens (Red Sox)
8/11/1984 to 8/15/1993. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 81.3
Stewart (9-1): 9-1, 74.0 IP, 2.19 ERA, 56 H, 20 BB, 38 SO, 1.027 WHIP, .214/.275/.313
Clemens (1-9): 1-8, 56.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 65 H, 26 BB, 51 SO, 1.615 WHIP, .288/.366/.429
Best Game: Athletics @ Red Sox (4/29/1990). Athletics 1-0

13. Scott Erickson (Orioles, Twins) vs. Roger Clemens (Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays)
7/18/1992 to 4/1/2002. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 81.3
Erickson (4-3): 3-3, 54.1 IP, 1.49 ERA, 34 H, 21 BB, 39 SO, 1.012 WHIP, .182/.271/.251
Clemens (3-4): 3-2, 50.1 IP, 2.50 ERA, 38 H, 19 BB, 54 SO, 1.132 WHIP, .205/.283/.297
Best Game: Red Sox @ Twins (7/18/1992). Red Sox 1-0

14. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs) vs. Jose Rijo (Reds)
5/21/1990 to 5/12/1995. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 81.0
Maddux (4-3): 2-2, 49.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 47 H, 12 BB, 39 SO, 1.188 WHIP, .255/.307/.299
Rijo (3-4): 2-2, 50.0 IP, 2.88 ERA, 45 H, 9 BB, 47 SO, 1.080 WHIP, .239/.274/.410
Best Game: Braves @ Reds (8/15/1993). Braves 1-0

15. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks, Astros, Mariners) vs. Kevin Brown (Orioles, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers)
6/1/1991 to 5/26/2002. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 80.5
Johnson (5-4): 1-2, 61.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 57 H, 28 BB, 80 SO, 1.393 WHIP, .257/.353/.405
Brown (4-5): 2-2, 52.0 IP, 3.98 ERA, 51 H, 20 BB, 51 SO, 1.365 WHIP, .254/.339/.378
Best Game: Padres @ Astros (9/29/1998. NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Padres 2-1

16. Kevin Brown (Marlins, Dodgers) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves)
8/1/1997 to 5/14/2003. 5 games. Rivalry Score = 79.2
Brown (4-1): 2-0, 35.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 26 H, 17 BB, 26 SO, 1.217 WHIP, .205/.308/.307
Maddux (1-4): 0-2, 34.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 27 H, 7 BB, 26 SO, 1.000 WHIP, .213/.254/.362
Best Game: Marlins @ Braves (8/11/1997). Braves 2-1

18. Pedro J. Martinez (Expos, Mets) vs. John Smoltz (Braves)
7/25/1994 to 4/28/2006. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 78.8
Martinez (4-2): 4-2, 44.0 IP, 2.86 ERA, 28 H, 11 BB, 40 SO, 0.886 WHIP, .183/.236/.314
Smoltz (2-4): 2-3, 41.0 IP, 3.07 ERA, 42 H, 11 BB, 38 SO, 1.293 WHIP, .268/.318/.433
Best Game: Braves @ Mets (9/16/2005). Mets 4-0

19. Roger Clemens (Red Sox) vs. Chuck Finley (Angels)
5/20/1988 to 8/27/1996. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 78.7
Clemens (5-2): 5-2, 55.1 IP, 1.30 ERA, 41 H, 13 BB, 50 SO, 0.976 WHIP, .200/.248/.283
Finley (2-5): 1-5, 52.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 45 H, 27 BB, 34 SO, 1.385 WHIP, .249/.354/.354
Best Game: Angels @ Red Sox (5/26/1989). Angels 5-0

23. Doug Drabek (Orioles, Astros, Pirates) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs)
6/26/1987 to 6/7/1998. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 77.5
Drabek (5-5): 4-3, 72.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 61 H, 17 BB, 37 SO, 1.073 WHIP, .236/.281/.353
Maddux (5-5): 4-5, 67.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 58 H, 30 BB, 38 SO, 1.307 WHIP, .237/.325/.371
Best Game: Cubs @ Pirates (6/21/1989). Cubs 1-0 in 11 innings

34. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs) vs. John Burkett (Red Sox, Marlins, Giants)
5/16/1992 to 6/28/2002. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 75.2
Maddux (4-2): 3-2, 42.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 27 H, 10 BB, 36 SO, 0.881 WHIP, .182/.233/.230
Burkett (2-4): 2-3, 39.1 IP, 2.52 ERA, 40 H, 11 BB, 25 SO, 1.297 WHIP, .268/.317/.329
Best Game: Cubs @ Giants (5/16/1992). Giants 2-0

35. Roger Clemens (Red Sox) vs. Jack Morris (Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays)
4/22/1986 to 6/11/1992. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 75.0
Clemens (4-2): 4-1, 45.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 35 H, 14 BB, 54 SO, 1.073 WHIP, .210/.269/.353
Morris (2-4): 2-4, 40.0 IP, 4.95 ERA, 50 H, 19 BB, 23 SO, 1.725 WHIP, .309/.377/.451
Best Game: Red Sox @ Blue Jays (6/11/1992). Blue Jays 4-0

42. Javier Vazquez (White Sox, Expos) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs)
5/27/1998 to 7/2/2006. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 73.2
Vazquez (4-3): 1-2, 45.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 44 H, 8 BB, 40 SO, 1.156 WHIP, .260/.302/.367
Maddux (3-4): 2-1, 49.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 55 H, 4 BB, 32 SO, 1.204 WHIP, .299/.314/.418
Best Game: Expos @ Braves (5/27/1998). Braves 2-0

63. John Smoltz (Braves) vs. Pedro Astacio (Rockies, Dodgers, Nationals)
9/7/1992 to 8/26/2006. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 71.3
Smoltz (5-1): 5-1, 46.2 IP, 1.54 ERA, 32 H, 11 BB, 47 SO, 0.921 WHIP, .195/.244/.280
Astacio (1-5): 1-5, 35.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 42 H, 12 BB, 31 SO, 1.528 WHIP, .298/.351/.440
Best Game: Braves @ Dodgers (4/9/1996). Braves 3-1

134. Jack Morris (Tigers, Twins) vs. Tom Candiotti (Indians, Brewers, Blue Jays)
9/19/1984 to 10/8/1991. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 66.5
Morris (8-1): 8-1, 69.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 57 H, 24 BB, 44 SO, 1.163 WHIP, .225/.295/.292
Candiotti (1-8): 1-8, 52.1 IP, 5.16 ERA, 58 H, 23 BB, 34 SO, 1.548 WHIP, .275/.347/.403
Best Game: Indians @ Tigers (8/17/1990). Tigers 3-0

337. Hideo Nomo (Dodgers, Devil Rays) vs. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks, Yankees)
7/1/2002 to 6/21/2005. 5 games. Rivalry Score = 59.0
Nomo (3-2): 3-0, 34.1 IP, 2.36 ERA, 31 H, 8 BB, 24 SO, 1.136 WHIP, .242/.285/.344
Johnson (2-3): 0-3, 30.0 IP, 6.30 ERA, 38 H, 5 BB, 27 SO, 1.433 WHIP, .302/.343/.563
Best Game: Dodgers @ Diamondbacks (7/1/2002). Dodgers 4-0

Top 10 Pitching Rivalries, 1918-2010

1. Tom Seaver (Reds, Mets) vs. Steve Carlton (Phillies, Cardinals)
4/12/1970 to 4/5/1983. 17 games. Rivalry Score = 97.0
Seaver (13-4): 11-3, 121.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 100 H, 46 BB, 95 SO, 1.200 WHIP, .224/.296/.336
Carlton (4-13): 3-12, 123.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 106 H, 40 BB, 93 SO, 1.184 WHIP, .236/.297/.360
Best Game: Phillies @ Mets (9/24/1972). Mets 2-1

2. Curt Schilling (Diamondbacks, Phillies) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves)
5/15/1993 to 8/17/2003. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 93.7
Schilling (5-4): 5-3, 64.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 49 H, 10 BB, 65 SO, 0.917 WHIP, .208/.240/.292
Maddux (4-5): 4-3, 66.2 IP, 1.49 ERA, 49 H, 11 BB, 48 SO, 0.900 WHIP, .206/.243/.277
Best Game: Braves @ Phillies (4/10/1998). Phillies 1-0

3. Robin Roberts (Phillies) vs. Don Newcombe (Dodgers, Reds)
4/18/1950 to 7/5/1960. 18 games. Rivalry Score = 93.0
Roberts (11-7): 9-7, 147.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 141 H, 27 BB, 59 SO, 1.138 WHIP, .253/.287/.404
Newcombe (7-11): 5-11, 129.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 139 H, 27 BB, 53 SO, 1.280 WHIP, .279/.317/.417
Best Game: Phillies @ Dodgers (8/14/1955). Phillies 3-2 in 10 innings

4. Juan Marichal (Giants) vs. Don Drysdale (Dodgers)
5/19/1961 to 8/1/1968. 16 games. Rivalry Score = 92.2
Marichal (11-5): 10-3, 125.2 IP, 1.86 ERA, 90 H, 14 BB, 96 SO, 0.828 WHIP, .195/.220/.302
Drysdale (5-11): 3-10, 112.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 115 H, 19 BB, 68 SO, 1.189 WHIP, .264/.298/.382
Best Game: Giants @ Dodgers (6/15/1965). Giants 2-1

5. Larry Jansen (Giants) vs. Robin Roberts (Phillies)
9/6/1948 to 4/20/1953. 8 games. Rivalry Score = 90.5
Jansen (5-3): 4-2, 72.1 IP, 1.62 ERA, 53 H, 18 BB, 34 SO, 0.982 WHIP, .199/.250/.248
Roberts (3-5): 2-4, 65.0 IP, 2.63 ERA, 63 H, 16 BB, 38 SO, 1.215 WHIP, .249/.296/.356
Best Game: Giants @ Phillies (8/18/1951). Giants 2-0

6. Robin Roberts (Phillies) vs. Johnny Antonelli (Braves, Braves, Giants, Giants)
4/23/1950 to 8/21/1959. 16 games. Rivalry Score = 90.3
Roberts (10-6): 9-6, 137.0 IP, 2.04 ERA, 109 H, 24 BB, 61 SO, 0.971 WHIP, .214/.250/.335
Antonelli (6-10): 4-9, 100.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 94 H, 45 BB, 59 SO, 1.385 WHIP, .247/.327/.365
Best Game: Giants @ Phillies (9/26/1954). Giants 3-2 in 11 innings

7. Warren Spahn (Braves, Braves) vs. Robin Roberts (Phillies)
9/11/1948 to 8/28/1961. 13 games. Rivalry Score = 90.0
Spahn (10-3): 10-3, 110.0 IP, 1.88 ERA, 83 H, 29 BB, 50 SO, 1.018 WHIP, .208/.260/.296
Roberts (3-10): 3-8, 93.2 IP, 4.13 ERA, 95 H, 18 BB, 49 SO, 1.206 WHIP, .264/.300/.400
Best Game: Phillies @ Braves (4/29/1954). Phillies 4-0

8. Bob Feller (Indians) vs. Hal Newhouser (Tigers)
8/12/1940 to 9/3/1952. 16 games. Rivalry Score = 89.8
Feller (11-5): 10-3, 126.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 111 H, 58 BB, 86 SO, 1.338 WHIP, .228/.312/.296
Newhouser (5-11): 3-9, 113.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 116 H, 46 BB, 70 SO, 1.425 WHIP, .256/.324/.361
Best Game: Tigers @ Indians (9/22/1946). Tigers 3-0

9. Bob Gibson (Cardinals) vs. Gaylord Perry (Giants)
5/1/1966 to 8/4/1971. 8 games. Rivalry Score = 89.5
Gibson (4-4): 4-4, 72.0 IP, 1.75 ERA, 40 H, 14 BB, 72 SO, 0.750 WHIP, .163/.215/.305
Perry (4-4): 4-3, 65.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 43 H, 14 BB, 45 SO, 0.877 WHIP, .185/.232/.232
Best Game: Cardinals @ Giants (9/17/1968). Giants 1-0

10. Ferguson Jenkins (Cubs) vs. Bob Gibson (Cardinals)
6/3/1967 to 5/31/1972. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 89.3
Jenkins (6-3): 5-3, 75.2 IP, 1.78 ERA, 56 H, 14 BB, 63 SO, 0.925 WHIP, .204/.248/.296
Gibson (3-6): 3-5, 77.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 63 H, 22 BB, 62 SO, 1.094 WHIP, .223/.277/.325
Best Game: Cubs @ Cardinals (6/21/1968). Cardinals 1-0

11. Steve Rogers (Expos) vs. Steve Carlton (Phillies)
7/26/1973 to 4/23/1985. 19 games. Rivalry Score = 89.0
Rogers (11-8): 9-6, 139.0 IP, 3.24 ERA, 133 H, 47 BB, 64 SO, 1.295 WHIP, .257/.318/.351
Carlton (8-11): 6-9, 145.0 IP, 3.17 ERA, 123 H, 59 BB, 123 SO, 1.255 WHIP, .233/.310/.378
Best Game: Phillies @ Expos (9/30/1979). Phillies 2-0

12. Pedro Martinez (Red Sox) vs. Bartolo Colon (Angels, Indians)
7/15/1998 to 10/6/2004. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 88.8
Martinez (6-1): 5-0, 52.0 IP, 1.56 ERA, 34 H, 8 BB, 61 SO, 0.808 WHIP, .187/.227/.214
Colon (1-6): 0-3, 49.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 47 H, 19 BB, 51 SO, 1.329 WHIP, .250/.322/.372
Best Game: Indians @ Red Sox (7/15/1998). Red Sox 1-0

15. Billy Pierce (White Sox, Giants) vs. Whitey Ford (Yankees)
9/9/1953 to 10/15/1962. 16 games. Rivalry Score = 87.5
Pierce (9-7): 8-7, 128.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 97 H, 30 BB, 72 SO, 0.990 WHIP, .206/.255/.319
Ford (7-9): 6-8, 107.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 110 H, 35 BB, 55 SO, 1.351 WHIP, .263/.325/.354
Best Game: White Sox @ Yankees (7/15/1956). Yankees 2-1

18. Tom Seaver (Red Sox, White Sox, Reds, Mets) vs. Don Sutton (Angels, Astros, Dodgers)
6/10/1968 to 7/27/1986. 13 games. Rivalry Score = 86.2
Seaver (7-6): 7-4, 97.2 IP, 2.03 ERA, 70 H, 32 BB, 66 SO, 1.044 WHIP, .208/.280/.329
Sutton (6-7): 6-7, 95.0 IP, 2.46 ERA, 75 H, 20 BB, 85 SO, 1.000 WHIP, .215/.259/.292
Best Game: Mets @ Dodgers (7/17/1970). Dodgers 1-0 in 10 innings

19. Roger Clemens (Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays) vs. Bret Saberhagen (Red Sox, Royals)
7/31/1987 to 9/12/1999. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 86.0
Clemens (5-1): 4-1, 48.0 IP, 1.13 ERA, 29 H, 13 BB, 53 SO, 0.875 WHIP, .172/.238/.231
Saberhagen (1-5): 0-4, 37.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 40 H, 9 BB, 21 SO, 1.301 WHIP, .284/.329/.496
Best Game: Royals @ Red Sox (4/18/1991). Red Sox 1-0

22. Juan Marichal (Giants) vs. Jim Bunning (Phillies, Pirates)
6/24/1965 to 5/14/1969. 8 games. Rivalry Score = 85.3
Marichal (5-3): 5-3, 76.0 IP, 1.66 ERA, 56 H, 10 BB, 59 SO, 0.868 WHIP, .206/.233/.294
Bunning (3-5): 3-4, 59.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 45 H, 15 BB, 37 SO, 1.011 WHIP, .213/.277/.403
Best Game: Phillies @ Giants (5/26/1966). Giants 1-0 in 14 innings

27. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs) vs. Darryl Kile (Rockies, Astros, Cardinals)
7/20/1991 to 5/5/2002. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 84.5
Maddux (6-3): 6-2, 70.0 IP, 1.67 ERA, 52 H, 9 BB, 46 SO, 0.871 WHIP, .211/.244/.280
Kile (3-6): 2-6, 62.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 51 H, 22 BB, 47 SO, 1.171 WHIP, .218/.282/.338
Best Game: Astros @ Braves (9/30/1997. NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Braves 2-1

28. Jim Palmer (Orioles) vs. Gaylord Perry (Indians, Rangers)
5/17/1973 to 7/30/1980. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 84.3
Palmer (4-2): 3-1, 55.1 IP, 0.65 ERA, 38 H, 10 BB, 36 SO, 0.867 WHIP, .196/.239/.237
Perry (2-4): 1-3, 52.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 45 H, 10 BB, 41 SO, 1.044 WHIP, .241/.278/.299
Best Game: Rangers @ Orioles (7/23/1977). Rangers 1-0 in 13 innings

31. Andy Benes (Diamondbacks, Padres, Cardinals) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves, Cubs)
5/6/1990 to 9/18/1998. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 83.5
Benes (6-4): 4-2, 75.1 IP, 2.27 ERA, 50 H, 16 BB, 49 SO, 0.876 WHIP, .184/.229/.268
Maddux (4-6): 3-4, 73.0 IP, 2.59 ERA, 69 H, 15 BB, 53 SO, 1.151 WHIP, .255/.295/.303
Best Game: Cubs @ Padres (5/22/1992). Padres 2-0

38. Hal Newhouser (Tigers) vs. Early Wynn (Indians, Senators)
6/5/1943 to 4/25/1953. 14 games. Rivalry Score = 82.2
Newhouser (7-7): 7-5, 111.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 97 H, 29 BB, 58 SO, 1.128 WHIP, .227/.276/.302
Wynn (7-7): 6-6, 98.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 103 H, 39 BB, 43 SO, 1.444 WHIP, .263/.329/.352
Best Game: Tigers @ Senators (6/29/1944). Tigers 4-0

41. Dave Stewart (Athletics, Rangers, Blue Jays) vs. Roger Clemens (Red Sox)
8/11/1984 to 8/15/1993. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 81.3
Stewart (9-1): 9-1, 74.0 IP, 2.19 ERA, 56 H, 20 BB, 38 SO, 1.027 WHIP, .214/.275/.313
Clemens (1-9): 1-8, 56.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 65 H, 26 BB, 51 SO, 1.615 WHIP, .288/.366/.429
Best Game: Athletics @ Red Sox (4/29/1990). Athletics 1-0

43. Scott Erickson (Orioles, Twins) vs. Roger Clemens (Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays)
7/18/1992 to 4/1/2002. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 81.3
Erickson (4-3): 3-3, 54.1 IP, 1.49 ERA, 34 H, 21 BB, 39 SO, 1.012 WHIP, .182/.271/.251
Clemens (3-4): 3-2, 50.1 IP, 2.50 ERA, 38 H, 19 BB, 54 SO, 1.132 WHIP, .205/.283/.297
Best Game: Red Sox @ Twins (7/18/1992). Red Sox 1-0

46. Lefty Grove (Athletics) vs. Red Faber (White Sox)
5/11/1926 to 9/18/1931. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 81.0
Grove (5-1): 5-1, 53.0 IP, 0.85 ERA, 34 H, 13 BB, 45 SO, 0.887 WHIP, .176/.232/.223
Faber (1-5): 1-5, 44.0 IP, 2.66 ERA, 49 H, 18 BB, 18 SO, 1.523 WHIP, .271/.340/.320
Best Game: White Sox @ Athletics (6/23/1930). Athletics 2-1

50. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks, Astros, Mariners) vs. Kevin Brown (Orioles, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers)
6/1/1991 to 5/26/2002. 9 games. Rivalry Score = 80.5
Johnson (5-4): 1-2, 61.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 57 H, 28 BB, 80 SO, 1.393 WHIP, .257/.353/.405
Brown (4-5): 2-2, 52.0 IP, 3.98 ERA, 51 H, 20 BB, 51 SO, 1.365 WHIP, .254/.339/.378
Best Game: Padres @ Astros (9/29/1998. NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Padres 2-1

56. Lefty Grove (Red Sox, Athletics) vs. General Crowder (Tigers, Browns, Senators)
9/20/1927 to 9/19/1935. 11 games. Rivalry Score = 79.8
Grove (8-3): 7-3, 90.0 IP, 3.20 ERA, 93 H, 17 BB, 36 SO, 1.222 WHIP, .256/.289/.336
Crowder (3-8): 3-8, 81.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 87 H, 29 BB, 43 SO, 1.420 WHIP, .262/.323/.407
Best Game: Athletics @ Senators (4/30/1932). Senators 2-1

65. Kevin Brown (Marlins, Dodgers) vs. Greg Maddux (Braves)
8/1/1997 to 5/14/2003. 5 games. Rivalry Score = 79.2
Brown (4-1): 2-0, 35.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 26 H, 17 BB, 26 SO, 1.217 WHIP, .205/.308/.307
Maddux (1-4): 0-2, 34.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 27 H, 7 BB, 26 SO, 1.000 WHIP, .213/.254/.362
Best Game: Marlins @ Braves (8/11/1997). Braves 2-1

81. Jim Palmer (Orioles) vs. Jim Hunter (Athletics, Yankees, Athletics)
5/29/1966 to 8/6/1978. 10 games. Rivalry Score = 78.2
Palmer (5-5): 5-5, 77.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 63 H, 26 BB, 55 SO, 1.156 WHIP, .230/.297/.365
Hunter (5-5): 5-5, 72.1 IP, 2.74 ERA, 64 H, 23 BB, 33 SO, 1.203 WHIP, .236/.300/.391
Best Game: Yankees @ Orioles (9/7/1975). Yankees 2-0

109. Whitey Ford (Yankees) vs. Dick Donovan (White Sox, Indians, Senators)
6/17/1955 to 9/22/1964. 12 games. Rivalry Score = 76.3
Ford (7-5): 6-5, 93.0 IP, 2.52 ERA, 69 H, 34 BB, 57 SO, 1.108 WHIP, .204/.277/.286
Donovan (5-7): 5-6, 88.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 74 H, 14 BB, 35 SO, 1.000 WHIP, .225/.258/.377
Best Game: White Sox @ Yankees (6/17/1955). White Sox 2-1

279. Bert Blyleven (Indians, Twins, Rangers) vs. Jim Slaton (Angels, Brewers)
5/3/1972 to 4/25/1986. 8 games. Rivalry Score = 71.5
Blyleven (6-2): 6-2, 68.1 IP, 1.84 ERA, 47 H, 6 BB, 66 SO, 0.776 WHIP, .194/.214/.281
Slaton (2-6): 2-6, 55.0 IP, 3.44 ERA, 43 H, 22 BB, 31 SO, 1.182 WHIP, .221/.297/.323
Best Game: Twins @ Brewers (5/29/1973). Twins 1-0

291. John Smoltz (Braves) vs. Pedro Astacio (Rockies, Dodgers, Nationals)
9/7/1992 to 8/26/2006. 6 games. Rivalry Score = 71.3
Smoltz (5-1): 5-1, 46.2 IP, 1.54 ERA, 32 H, 11 BB, 47 SO, 0.921 WHIP, .195/.244/.280
Astacio (1-5): 1-5, 35.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 42 H, 12 BB, 31 SO, 1.528 WHIP, .298/.351/.440
Best Game: Braves @ Dodgers (4/9/1996). Braves 3-1

519. Mickey Lolich (Tigers) vs. Marty Pattin (Red Sox, Royals, Brewers, Pilots)
6/9/1969 to 7/11/1975. 7 games. Rivalry Score = 67.5
Lolich (5-2): 5-1, 53.2 IP, 2.35 ERA, 35 H, 16 BB, 57 SO, 0.950 WHIP, .184/.250/.289
Pattin (2-5): 2-5, 49.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 53 H, 21 BB, 33 SO, 1.490 WHIP, .272/.347/.395
Best Game: Brewers @ Tigers (8/23/1970). Tigers 1-0

689. Dean Chance (Angels, Indians, Angels, Twins) vs. Earl Wilson (Red Sox, Tigers)
4/10/1963 to 4/21/1970. 14 games. Rivalry Score = 65.7
Chance (7-7): 5-6, 97.0 IP, 2.88 ERA, 87 H, 27 BB, 82 SO, 1.175 WHIP, .236/.293/.351
Wilson (7-7): 6-6, 100.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 79 H, 34 BB, 68 SO, 1.130 WHIP, .219/.286/.371
Best Game: Twins @ Tigers (9/8/1968). Twins 3-1

1,532. Hideo Nomo (Dodgers, Devil Rays) vs. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks, Yankees)
7/1/2002 to 6/21/2005. 5 games. Rivalry Score = 59.0
Nomo (3-2): 3-0, 34.1 IP, 2.36 ERA, 31 H, 8 BB, 24 SO, 1.136 WHIP, .242/.285/.344
Johnson (2-3): 0-3, 30.0 IP, 6.30 ERA, 38 H, 5 BB, 27 SO, 1.433 WHIP, .302/.343/.563
Best Game: Dodgers @ Diamondbacks (7/1/2002). Dodgers 4-0

Explanation of Method

The first thing I did was to gather all of the pitching duel scores in the games in which two starting pitchers faced each other.  After a little internal debate I decided to include postseason matchups but not to give them any greater weight.  Postseason games will tend to have higher duel scores anyways since they match two quality teams and I think that pitchers on mediocre teams are disadvantaged enough as it is.

Once I gathered all duel scores between pairs of pitchers, I averaged their Top 10 games to come up with a base "rivalry score".  I wanted to reward pitchers with more than 10 quality matchups without falsely rewarding those with a bunch of poor ones so for those with more than 10 matchups, I have applied a 5 point bonus for each game beyond the Top 10 that scored at least 15 percent less than their Top 10 average.  For those pitchers with less than 8 matchups, I applied a penalty of:

• 7 Matchups: 3%
• 6 Matchups: 6%
• 5 Matchups: 12%
• 4 Matchups: 24%
• Etc.

I found this method of reward/penalty to best balance those career rivalries that were at an elite level for several years with those that were at an above average level for a long period.  Modern day pitchers average far fewer career matchups - due mostly to expansion and free agency - so I also wanted to take this into account.  Is this the best way?  I'm not sure.  But you can rest assured I spent plenty of time thinking about it.

Once I came up with a rivalry score for each pair of pitchers and ranked them, I determined each rivalry's winner and loser.  I did this by looking at their teams' records in the games they started. For those rivalries with a tie won/loss record, I used the pitchers' average game score as the tiebreaker.  In the spreadsheet of data, below the main data, I list the pitchers that have the most appearances in the Top 50 of each decade and the Top 200 all-time as well as their won/loss record in this rivalry.  As an example, in the 2000s, Pedro Martinez has the most rivalries in the Top 50 with 9 and has a record of 5-4 in those rivalries.

Postseason Pitching Duels

This post continues a topic on pitching duels previously introduced, improved and finalized.  The last thing I'd like to add to this hopefully-not-yet-over-analyzed issue of pitching duels is the best postseason matchups of all time.

The first step in doing this was to download postseason data from Retrosheet and modify my program to read this into a usable format.  As a quick aside, during this step my data processing logic got tripped up.  In tracking down the error, the thing that had tripped it up was what I had considered an impossibility: a tie postseason game.  I found the story pretty interesting.  In 1922, Game 2 of the World Series was tied 3-3 after 10 innings.  Here's the description of what happened from Wikipedia:

That game was called on account of darkness, but many thought there was sufficient light to have played some more innings (the sun was still in the sky), and there were some suspicions that one or both teams might have "allowed" the tie to happen to increase the overall gate receipts. Commissioner Landis was among those who was dissatisfied with the result. One story is that Landis asked Umpire Hildebrand, "Why the Sam Hill did you call the game?" The umpire answered, "There was a temporary haze on the field." The game decision was in the hands of the umpires, but the Commissioner's Office controlled the gate receipts. Landis ordered the money, more than $120,000, turned over to World War I charities, thus nullifying any impropriety. The tied game would turn out to be the third (and final) tied game in the history of the World Series. The other two tied games occurred in 1907 and 1912. No ties are possible under the modern rules, which allow for suspension of a tied game and resumption of it at a later date, as with Game 5 of the 2008 World Series.

Anyways, I generated a list of the Top 25 postseason pitching duels of each decade as well as the Top 100 all-time which you can see in spreadsheet form here.  I was curious to see where Roy Halladay's no-hitter from last year came in, but it only made it to #25 of the 2000s and didn't even crack the top-100 all-time.  The culprit?  Edinson Volquez.  The Reds pitcher not only had a poor season but also gave up 4 runs in 1.2 innings to ruin any chance the game had of being a great duel.

And now, here are the top-10 of all-time.  Unsurprisingly, the list is topped by four Game 1's, since these are most likely to match staff aces.  Also, pitching duel darling Dwight Gooden makes an appearance as well.


10. Kevin Brown (Padres) @ Tom Glavine (Braves)
10/8/1998 (NLCS Game 2. Padres 1-0). Padres 3-0. 9 innings
Kevin Brown: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 SO
Tom Glavine: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 6 SO

9. Andy Pettitte (Yankees) @ Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
10/28/2001 (WS Game 2. Diamondbacks 1-0). Diamondbacks 4-0. 9 innings
Andy Pettitte: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 8 SO
Randy Johnson: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO

8. Bob Feller (Indians) @ Johnny Sain (Braves)
10/6/1948 (WS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Braves 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Feller: 8.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO
Johnny Sain: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 SO

7. Randy Johnson (Mariners) @ Mike Mussina (Orioles)
10/5/1997 (ALDS Game 4. Orioles 2-1). Orioles 3-1. 9 innings
Randy Johnson: 8.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 13 SO
Mike Mussina: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO

6. Whitey Ford (Yankees) @ Sandy Koufax (Dodgers)
10/6/1963 (WS Game 4. Dodgers 3-0). Dodgers 2-1. 9 innings
Whitey Ford: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO
Sandy Koufax: 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 SO

5. Andy Pettitte (Yankees) @ John Smoltz (Braves)
10/24/1996 (WS Game 5. Tied 2-2). Yankees 1-0. 9 innings
Andy Pettitte: 8.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO
John Smoltz: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 SO

4. Matt Morris (Cardinals) @ Curt Schilling (Diamondbacks)
10/9/2001 (NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Diamondbacks 1-0. 9 innings
Matt Morris: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO
Curt Schilling: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO

3. Dwight Gooden (Mets) @ Mike Scott (Astros)
10/8/1986 (NLCS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Astros 1-0. 9 innings
Dwight Gooden: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO
Mike Scott: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 SO

2. Kevin Brown (Padres) @ Randy Johnson (Astros)
9/29/1998 (NLDS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Padres 2-1. 9 innings
Kevin Brown: 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 16 SO
Randy Johnson: 8.0 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO

1. Greg Maddux (Braves) @ Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
10/16/2001 (NLCS Game 1. Tied 0-0). Diamondbacks 2-0. 9 innings
Greg Maddux: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO
Randy Johnson: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO


Thus concludes the subject of pitching duels.  If you'd like to review the generated lists of Top 25 for each decade and Top 100 all-time in spreadsheet form, click any of the following links:

• Bill James' original method, completed for all games from 1918-2010
• My improved method, which factors in a pitcher's career, the teams' record and adjustments for complete games, no-hitter and perfect games.  Regular season only.
• The improved method applied to all postseason games from 1918 to 2010

My plan for my next post is to extend this idea to come up with the greatest pitching rivalries of all-time.  After that, I'm not sure.  So if you have any ideas for deep, dark corners of the statistical world that need exploring, let me know.

Pitching Duels - The Final Edition

This post continues a topic previously introduced and improved.

Feel free to skip to Top 10 duels of all-time or view Top 25 for each decade and Top 100 of all-time in spreadsheet form.

Introduction

After my last post involving pitching duels, my brother Dusty emailed me with the question "Where are the no-hitters?"  I hadn't noticed the absence, but he was right.  Why wouldn't the supposed list of best pitching duels not include any no-hitters?  And so, at the risk of beating this subject to death, I'll devote this post once more to the subject of pitching duels.  More specifically: to pitching duels involving no-hitters.

In analyzing my list of pitching duels (described here, data in spreadsheet form here), I found that there were three no-hitters listed in the top 100: Bob Feller / Allie Reynolds (#41), Josh Johnson / Roy Halladay (#49) and Gaylord Perry / Bob Gibson (#90).

The No-Hitters

My first step was to isolate all no-hitters in history and give them a duel score according to my previously described method.  You can view the full list of no-hitters by decade and all-time here. The top-10 are:


10. Bob Feller (Indians) @ Eddie Smith (White Sox)
4/16/1940. Indians 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 8 SO
Eddie Smith: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO

9. Robin Roberts (Phillies) @ Jim Wilson (Braves)
6/12/1954. Braves 2-0. 9 innings
Robin Roberts: 8.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO
Jim Wilson: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO

8. Frank Tanana (Angels) @ Dennis Eckersley (Indians)
5/30/1977. Indians 1-0. 9 innings
Frank Tanana: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO
Dennis Eckersley: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 SO

7. Tim Belcher (Dodgers) @ Tom Browning (Reds)
9/16/1988. Reds 1-0. 9 innings
Tim Belcher: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 SO
Tom Browning: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO

6. Jose Jimenez (Cardinals) @ Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
6/25/1999. Cardinals 1-0. 9 innings
Jose Jimenez: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO
Randy Johnson: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 14 SO

5. Bob Feller (Indians) @ Bill Bevens (Yankees)
4/30/1946. Indians 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 5 BB, 11 SO
Bill Bevens: 9.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 SO

4. Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks) @ Mike Hampton (Braves)
5/18/2004. Diamondbacks 2-0. 9 innings
Randy Johnson: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 SO
Mike Hampton: 9.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO

3. Bob Gibson (Cardinals) @ Gaylord Perry (Giants)
9/17/1968. Giants 1-0. 9 innings
Bob Gibson: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 SO
Gaylord Perry: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 SO

2. Roy Halladay (Phillies) @ Josh Johnson (Marlins)
5/29/2010. Phillies 1-0. 9 innings
Roy Halladay: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 SO
Josh Johnson: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO

1. Allie Reynolds (Yankees) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
7/12/1951. Yankees 1-0. 9 innings
Allie Reynolds: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO
Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO

The Problem

After looking over the duel scores for all of these no-hitters, I determined the main reasons for the lack of no-hitters at the top of the list to be:

• With the number of no-hitters being so low (~20 per decade), the chances aren't great that the game will involve two good pitchers in the midst of good seasons and that the opposing pitcher will also pitch a good game.
• In the Game Score formula, walks are worth -1 point, strikeouts 1 point and hits -2 points.  In other words, strikeouts and walks are seen as half as important as hits.  This means that a 4-hitter with a lot of strikeouts and no walks would be worth more than a no-hitter with few strikeouts and a couple of walks.
• No-hitters are typically 9-inning games.  Since Game Score credits number of innings, a higher score is given for an extra-inning game than a comparable 9-inning game.  Since the duel score uses the game score for both the starting pitcher and for all team pitchers, this effect is compounded.

The Solution

The idea that a hit against is worth twice as much as a strikeout or walk in the Game Score seems about right to me.  In the context of pitching duels, however, I believe that the difference between 0 hits and 1 hit is much greater than the difference between 1 hit and 2 hits.  A duel is about the magnitude of the event, and what event has more magnitude than a no-hitter?

To address these issue, I decided to introduce a "bonus" score to give credit for an achievement beyond the pure numbers.  Numerically 2-1 = 1-0, but in the context of hits in baseball game, we all know this is not true.  I experimented with a number of different values for the bonus.  If the bonus was too low, I didn't feel the no-hitters were raised in stature enough.  Too high and some otherwise weak matchups were elevated too high.  I finally settled on the following bonus points:

- 25 points for a no-hitter

- 10 more points for a perfect game.  

- NOTE that both of these achievements require the starting pitcher to pitch a complete game.

Onto the issue of extra-inning games.  Should an extra-inning game be considered more of a duel than a 9-inning game?  All else being about equal, I say yes.  Since both pitching staffs get credited for these extra innings, however, I think the compensation is a bit too high.  I debated how exactly to compensate for this.  Scaling an extra-inning game down to 9-inning stats didn't seem fair.  

Ultimately I decided to introduce a 10-point bonus when the starting pitcher pitches a complete game.  Since most extremely-long games involve the bullpen, this not only evens things up a bit (while still maintaining some advantage to extra-inning games) but also rewards a pitcher for pitching the full game, which seems right in the context of pitching duels.  

An unintended side-effect of this bonus is that it lowered the comparative score of modern-day games a bit since complete games are less common than they once were.  At one point I was worried that my original list was a bit top heavy with games in the last 20 years so I actually like this effect.

The Results

You can view the full results in spreadsheet form here.  I have highlighted the no-hitters on the 'All-Time' tab so you can see where they lie; there are now 8 that crack the top-100.  There is now a "Bonus" column for both Home and Visitor with all of the discussed bonuses added together (10 for complete game, 25 for no-hitter + 10 more for perfect game).

Here is the new top-10.  It doesn't differ a ton from the old list but I have included their old rankings in parenthesis so you can compare.  Allie Reynolds' no-hitter against Bob Feller cracked the list at #10 but the rest of the differences are due to a few non complete games getting dropped a few spots which, as discussed above, I don't think is a bad thing.

10(41). Allie Reynolds (Yankees) @ Bob Feller (Indians)

7/12/1951. Yankees 1-0. 9 innings

Allie Reynolds: 9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO

Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO

9(3). Rudy May (Angels) @ Vida Blue (Athletics)

7/9/1971. Athletics 1-0. 20 innings

Rudy May: 12.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 13 SO

Vida Blue: 11.0 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 17 SO

8(8). Tex Carleton (Cardinals) @ Carl Hubbell (Giants)

7/2/1933. Giants 1-0. 18 innings

Tex Carleton: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 7 SO

Carl Hubbell: 18.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO

7(7). Jim Bunning (Phillies) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)

5/26/1966. Giants 1-0. 14 innings

Jim Bunning: 10.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO

Juan Marichal: 14.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO

6(10). Pedro Martinez (Red Sox) @ Roger Clemens (Yankees)

5/28/2000. Red Sox 2-0. 9 innings

Pedro Martinez: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO

Roger Clemens: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 13 SO

5(2). Greg Maddux (Braves) @ Curt Schilling (Phillies)

4/10/1998. Phillies 1-0. 9 innings

Greg Maddux: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO

Curt Schilling: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO

4(6). Tex Hughson (Red Sox) @ Bob Feller (Indians)

6/21/1946. Red Sox 1-0. 9 innings

Tex Hughson: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO

Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO

3(5). Hal Newhouser (Tigers) @ Bob Feller (Indians)

9/22/1946. Tigers 3-0. 9 innings

Hal Newhouser: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO

Bob Feller: 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 SO

2(4). Warren Spahn (Braves) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)

7/2/1963. Giants 1-0. 16 innings

Warren Spahn: 15.1 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO

Juan Marichal: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 SO

1(1). John Tudor (Cardinals) @ Dwight Gooden (Mets)

9/11/1985. Cardinals 1-0. 10 innings

John Tudor: 10.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO

Dwight Gooden: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO

And... I'm done.  Hope you enjoyed it.  In my next post, I look at the greatest postseason pitching duels of all-time.

Pitching Duels - Improved

In my previous post I introduced a method devised by Bill James to determine the greatest pitching duels of all time.  After reviewing the results of this method, I realized that there was something missing from the formula.  The list is dominated by pitchers in the midst of a great seasons pitching a great game against another pitcher in the midst of a great season.  A pitching duel, I would argue, is very much about the quality of the pitcher involved, leading me to introduce a new element to take each pitcher's career into account.

Career Scores

In order to accomplish this, I have calculated a career score for every pitcher since 1918.  After several attempts I determined that in the spirit of a pitcher's duel I wanted to value an elite short-term pitcher over a solid long-term pitcher: all things being equal, I would call a pitcher's duel involving Sandy Koufax more exciting than one involving Kelvim Escobar.

To accomplish this, for each player I have averaged their top 5 Season Scores to come up with a Career Score.  Before averaging, I scaled the Season Scores to be between 0-100.  Because most players' careers will span multiple decades, this scaling was done using a sliding scale rather than the min/max of each decade.  As an example, a player's 1975 season would be scaled using the average minimum season score for each year from 1970-1980 and the average maximum season score for each year from 1970-1980.

Bringing It Together

Lastly, as a type of tie-breaker, I have introduced a small quality of team factor.  If a pitcher's team is under .500, this value is 0.  If a pitcher's team is over .500, 1 point is added for every hundredth of a point the team's final season winning percentage is over .500.  So a .550 team would get 5 points and a .600 team would get 10 points.  This element is added to give a little value to a pitcher's duel involving quality teams.  The factor is comparatively low so that mediocre matchups involving great teams don't dominate the list but is large enough to place duels between quality teams above those involving bad ones, all other things being equal.

The last change I made to the method is to double the run penalty, subtracting 10 points for each run allowed in the game rather than 5.  Adding more points to the formula was making the run penalty comparatively less important so I compensated accordingly.

The List

Here, then, is the final list of the greatest pitching duels of all time.  There is a tab for each decade with the top-25 for that decade as well as an 'All-Time' tab with the top-100 duels of all time.  The data should follow but if you have trouble seeing the data, you can also access it here.




Results
Here is the revised top-10 list of pitching duels of all time:


10. Pedro Martinez (Red Sox) @ Roger Clemens (Yankees)
5/28/2000. Red Sox 2-0. 9 innings
Martinez: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO
Clemens: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 13 SO

9. Dwight Gooden (Mets) @ Fernando Valenzuela (Dodgers)
9/6/1985. Mets 2-0. 13 innings
Gooden: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 SO
Valenzuela: 11.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO

8. Tex Carleton (Cardinals) @ Carl Hubbell (Giants)
7/2/1933. Giants 1-0. 18 innings
Carleton: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 7 SO
Hubbell: 18.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO

7. Jim Bunning (Phillies) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)
5/26/1966. Giants 1-0. 14 innings
Bunning: 10.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO
Marichal: 14.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO

6. Tex Hughson (Red Sox) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
6/21/1946. Red Sox 1-0. 9 innings
Hughson: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO
Feller: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO

5. Hal Newhouser (Tigers) @ Bob Feller (Indians)
9/22/1946. Tigers 3-0. 9 innings
Newhouser: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO
Feller: 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 SO

4. Warren Spahn (Braves) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)
7/2/1963. Giants 1-0. 16 innings
Spahn: 15.1 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO
Marichal: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 SO

3. Rudy May (Angels) @ Vida Blue (Athletics)
7/9/1971. Athletics 1-0. 20 innings
May: 12.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 13 SO
Blue: 11.0 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 17 SO

2. Greg Maddux (Braves) @ Curt Schilling (Phillies)
4/10/1998. Phillies 1-0. 9 innings
Maddux: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO
Schilling: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO

1. John Tudor (Cardinals) @ Dwight Gooden (Mets)
9/11/1985. Cardinals 1-0. 10 innings
Tudor: 10.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO
Gooden: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO


Conclusion

While some of the same games appear on this list that appeared on the original list, I think it does a better job of picking out quality matchups of quality pitchers, which I think is in the spirit of pitching duels.

So that's my method and there's my list.  Hope you liked it.  I'd recommend at least browsing the Top 25 of whatever era you remember best... it's strangely intriguing.

EDIT: I have modified the method for determining pitching duels and you can find the final discussion/list here.

Pitching Duels

I recently read Bill James' Solid Fools Gold which - as most Bill James books tend to be - is a collection of thoughts about a wide range of subjects, most involving baseball. One of the chapters of this books is called "The Greatest Pitchers' Duels of the 1980s." As the title would suggest, James lays out a statistical method to analyze pitching matchups throughout history, then applies this method to determine the greatest single-game matchups of the 1980s. James expresses a one-time desire to figure this out for every game since 1950 but said he didn't because "everyone got bored with the project."

As a baseball-loving computer programmer, I'd been wanting to try my hand at baseball statistics for some time and figured this was as good a place to start as any. My first step was to download all of the game data from Retrosheet. Next came the tedious data-parsing code needed to read all of this data into my program. After a good amount of work, the result is a program that has play-by-play data for all games since around 1950 and all box scores since 1918. My next step was to use this data to analyze the pitching duels.

Bill James' Method:

The method which James lays out incorporates three elements:

1. Quality of Starting Pitchers: Each starting pitcher's Season Score, scaled based on the decade's min/max Season Score to come up with an integer between 0-100.
2. Quality of Performance of the Starting Pitchers: Each starting pitcher's Game Score (which is already more or less on a 0-100 scale)
3. Quality Performances by Other Pitchers in the Game: Each team's Game Score for the game. This is calculated using the stats from all pitchers in the game (including starter) as if they were from a single pitcher.

The "Pitcher's Duel Score" is calculated by adding these three elements together for both teams, resulting in a theoretical score of 0-600 for every game ever played. A run penalty is then applied, subtracting 5 points for each run scored in the game. eg: A 1-0 game would have a 5-point penalty, a 3-1 game would have a 20-point penalty, etc.

James goes on to list the top-10 duels of the 1980s, culminating in his #1: Dwight Gooden (NYM) vs. John Tudor (STL), 9/11/1985.

Bill James' List, Completed

Once I had all of the data in my program, I wrote the code to calculate the "Pitcher's Duel Score," as defined above for each and every game since 1918. There is a slight discrepancy between my 1980s scores and Bill James' because he seems to be using some different version of the Season Score formula than I did.  The discrepancy is very small, however, and certainly doesn't prevent this formula from doing what James intended it to do: pick out the best pitching duels.      

Without further delay, here are the greatest pitcher's duels since 1918 in spreadsheet form. There is a tab for each decade showing the top-25 for that decade and an 'All-Time' tab with the top-100 of all-time. Note that I included years 1918 & 1919 in the 1920s and the year 2010 in the 2000s. The spreadsheet should follow, but you can also access the data here.

Most of the columns in data should be self-explanatory, with the exception of the following:

• Matchup Full: The Duel Score calculated as stated in the first section of this post
• Matchup: The Duel Score divided by 595 to generate a score between 0-100 where 100 is the "perfect" matchup.
• Season: The starting pitcher's Season Score, scaled to 0-100 based on the min/max seasons of each decade.
• Game: The starting pitcher's Game Score, scaled to 0-100 based on the min/max individual game scores of each decade.
• Team Game: Combined Game Score for all pitchers on team, scaled to 0-100 based on the min/max team game scores of each decade.

Results

The Top 10 pitching duels of all-time are:

10. Leon Cadore (Robins) @ Joe Oeschger (Braves)

5/1/1920. Tied 1-1. 26 innings

Cadore: 26.0 IP, 15 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 7 SO

Oeschger: 26.0 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 SO

9. Warren Spahn (Braves) @ Juan Marichal (Giants)

7/2/1963. Giants 1-0. 16 innings

Spahn: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 SO

Marichal: 15.1 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO

8. Johnny Antonelli (Giants) @ Don Newcombe (Dodgers)

8/15/1956. Giants 1-0. 9 innings

Antonelli: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 SO

Newcombe: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO

7. Hal Newhouser (Tigers) @ Bob Feller (Indians)

9/22/1946. Tigers 3-0. 9 innings

Newhouser: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO

Feller: 9.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 7 SO

6. Tex Hughson (Red Sox) @ Bob Feller (Indians)

6/21/1946. Red Sox 1-0. 9 innings

Hughson: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO

Feller: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO

5. Dwight Gooden (Mets) @ Fernando Valenzuela (Dodgers)

9/6/1985. Mets 2-0. 13 innings

Gooden: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 SO

Valenzuela: 11.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO

4. Erik Hanson (Mariners) @ Dave Stewart (Athletics)

8/2/1990. Athletics 1-0. 11 innings

Hanson: 10.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 SO

Stewart: 11.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 SO

3. John Tudor (Cardinals) @ Dwight Gooden (Mets)

9/11/1985. Cardinals 1-0. 10 innings

Tudor: 10.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO

Gooden: 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO

2. Tex Carleton (Cardinals) @ Carl Hubbell (Giants)

7/2/1933. Giants 1-0. 18 innings

Carleton: 16.0 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 7 SO

Hubbell: 18.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO

1. Rudy May (Angels) @ Vida Blue (Athletics)

7/9/1971. Athletics 1-0. 20 innings

May:12.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 13 SO

Blue: 11.0 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 17 SO

Conclusion

While happy with the final results and intrigued enough with the lists to spend a good amount of time poring over them, I couldn't help but think something was missing from this equation. This something can be demonstrated by the fact that the #1 pitching duel of the 2000s involved Kelvim Escobar. In my mind, a true pitching duel is not just two pitchers having a great game or even two pitchers in the midst of a great season having a great game, but rather two great pitchers pitching a great game.

This led me to modify Bill James' formula to come up with a new, better top 100. What was truly the greatest pitching duel of all time?  Find out here.

Hint: Bill James was correct to begin his analysis in the 1980s.