In an article I wrote about a year and a half ago I looked into the ability of some pitchers to start a game as strongly as one can: with a no-hitter. Rather than look at elite pitchers who start games exceptionally strong, I wanted to analyze at what point in the game each individual pitcher peaks. The idea of a pitcher being a strong starter or a strong finisher is certainly not a new one and oftentimes an announcer will make mention of a starting pitcher "hitting his stride" at some point in the middle innings. I wanted to develop a way to quantify this effect and to play around with the results.
This is the first of (probably) several posts exploring this effect. For starters, we'll just look at the 2012 season and include all pitchers who started at least 20 games. To find the peak point in each game, I thought 7 consecutive batters sounded about right. This is approximately 2 innings, which when I think of a pitcher hitting his stride seems to fit with how the phrase is typically used. So for every game a pitcher pitched, the stats for every 7-batter period were calculated then added together for the entire season. As an example, the aforementioned Justin Verlander's breakdown looks like this:
| Batters | Stats |
| 1-7 | 55.2 IP, 48 H, 18 R, 17 ER, 18 BB, 52 SO, 2.75 ERA,1.186 WHIP,.230/.288/.378 |
| 2-8 | 58.1 IP, 42 H, 15 R, 14 ER, 17 BB, 59 SO, 2.16 ERA,1.011 WHIP,.200/.258/.286 |
| 3-9 | 59.0 IP, 42 H, 15 R, 14 ER, 15 BB, 65 SO, 2.14 ERA,0.966 WHIP,.197/.248/.277 |
| 4-10 | 59.0 IP, 44 H, 17 R, 16 ER, 13 BB, 67 SO, 2.44 ERA,0.966 WHIP,.204/.248/.301 |
| 5-11 | 60.1 IP, 40 H, 14 R, 13 ER, 11 BB, 68 SO, 1.94 ERA,0.845 WHIP,.185/.227/.264 |
| 6-12 | 58.2 IP, 45 H, 19 R, 19 ER, 12 BB, 63 SO, 2.91 ERA,0.972 WHIP,.208/.253/.338 |
| 7-13 | 59.0 IP, 45 H, 19 R, 19 ER, 11 BB, 64 SO, 2.90 ERA,0.949 WHIP,.207/.249/.341 |
| 8-14 | 57.2 IP, 49 H, 22 R, 22 ER, 12 BB, 62 SO, 3.43 ERA,1.058 WHIP,.227/.271/.389 |
| 9-15 | 56.1 IP, 53 H, 23 R, 22 ER, 12 BB, 59 SO, 3.51 ERA,1.154 WHIP,.247/.288/.409 |
| 10-16 | 55.1 IP, 59 H, 25 R, 24 ER, 10 BB, 55 SO, 3.90 ERA,1.247 WHIP,.271/.304/.440 |
| 11-17 | 55.2 IP, 56 H, 21 R, 20 ER, 12 BB, 55 SO, 3.23 ERA,1.222 WHIP,.259/.300/.398 |
| 12-18 | 56.1 IP, 58 H, 23 R, 22 ER, 12 BB, 50 SO, 3.51 ERA,1.243 WHIP,.266/.303/.422 |
| 13-19 | 57.2 IP, 51 H, 20 R, 19 ER, 13 BB, 51 SO, 2.97 ERA,1.110 WHIP,.236/.281/.338 |
| 14-20 | 55.1 IP, 56 H, 21 R, 18 ER, 14 BB, 48 SO, 2.93 ERA,1.265 WHIP,.260/.307/.367 |
| 15-21 | 57.0 IP, 50 H, 18 R, 14 ER, 15 BB, 49 SO, 2.21 ERA,1.140 WHIP,.235/.290/.305 |
| 16-22 | 57.1 IP, 47 H, 19 R, 15 ER, 17 BB, 47 SO, 2.35 ERA,1.116 WHIP,.222/.286/.297 |
| 17-23 | 58.2 IP, 43 H, 21 R, 17 ER, 16 BB, 48 SO, 2.61 ERA,1.006 WHIP,.202/.264/.296 |
| 18-24 | 58.2 IP, 43 H, 24 R, 20 ER, 15 BB, 47 SO, 3.07 ERA,0.989 WHIP,.201/.260/.327 |
| 19-25 | 57.0 IP, 41 H, 22 R, 17 ER, 15 BB, 49 SO, 2.68 ERA,0.982 WHIP,.194/.254/.308 |
| 20-26 | 56.2 IP, 42 H, 17 R, 12 ER, 13 BB, 51 SO, 1.91 ERA,0.971 WHIP,.201/.251/.301 |
| 21-27 | 57.0 IP, 35 H, 14 R, 11 ER, 11 BB, 54 SO, 1.74 ERA,0.807 WHIP,.173/.223/.267 |
| 22-28 | 53.1 IP, 36 H, 11 R, 9 ER, 10 BB, 55 SO, 1.52 ERA,0.863 WHIP,.185/.228/.277 |
| 23-29 | 48.2 IP, 35 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 8 BB, 53 SO, 1.66 ERA,0.884 WHIP,.192/.230/.280 |
Besides demonstrating in yet another way that Justin Verlander is a pretty good pitcher, his results are very interesting in that his performance to start and end each game is much stronger than his mid-game showing. Is this a trend for him year-to-year? No idea... at least not yet; seems like a good question to investigate down the road. As a quick note on where to stop the anaysis for each pitcher: I found the last batter that a pitcher made it to in at least half of his starts and used this as his endpoint. Verlander's last batter analyzed was #29, indicating that he pitched to at least 29 batters in more than half of his starts but pitched to at least 30 batters in less than half of his starts. This seemed like a good cut-off.
Now that we have the 7-batter summaries for each pitcher, we can find their best 7-batter range. "Best," of course, is highly subjective and depends on what statistic(s) we use. I toyed with using Runs Created but settled on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as the single number to use. The best 7-batter range, then, is the one with the best FIP. FIP is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA should have been based on only those things that a pitcher has been proven to have control over: home runs, strikeouts and walks. While imperfect, I settled on it over raw ERA since we're dealing with such small sample sets and also because at the end of outings, ERA becomes skewed by a good or bad bullpen and I wanted a number to isolate the starting pitcher's performance only.
Without further delay, I'll present the results. I intend to refine this method a bit and explore historical results (with many thanks to Retrosheet's tireless work, we're looking at a good chunk of play-by-play data all the way back to 1945 now... huzzah!) in the future but this will serve as a good introduction. In the results tables below, you will find:
- The pitcher's name
- Their peak batter range
- How many runs better (using FIP) this pitcher was during their peak than the season as a whole:
- How many total starts that pitcher made
- The last better analyzed for that pitcher. ie: The last batter the pitcher made it to in at least half of his starts.
- The pitcher's name
- Their peak batter range
- How many runs better (using FIP) this pitcher was during their peak than the season as a whole:
- How many total starts that pitcher made
- The last better analyzed for that pitcher. ie: The last batter the pitcher made it to in at least half of his starts.
Early Starters (Best stretch = Batters 1 to 7)
Pitcher
|
Peak Batters
|
Runs Better
|
Starts
|
Last Batter
|
Tommy Hunter
|
1-7
|
1.50
|
20
|
26
|
Jon Lester
|
1-7
|
1.28
|
33
|
27
|
R.A. Dickey
|
1-7
|
1.24
|
33
|
28
|
Matt Moore
|
1-7
|
1.08
|
31
|
25
|
Marco Estrada
|
1-7
|
1.08
|
23
|
24
|
Strong Closers (Best stretch = Last 7 batters faced)
| Pitcher | Peak Batters | Runs Better | Starts | Last Batter |
| Kyle Kendrick | 20-26 | 1.34 | 25 | 26 |
| Jose Quintana | 20-26 | 0.77 | 22 | 26 |
In addition to their peak period, I also determined their valley period: the 7-batter range in which each pitcher struggled the most.
Slow Starters (Worst stretch = Batters 1 to 7)
| Pitcher | Worst Batters | Runs Worse | Starts | Last Batter |
| Kyle Kendrick | 1-7 | -2.31 | 25 | 26 |
| Jeff Francis | 1-7 | -1.96 | 24 | 21 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 1-7 | -1.36 | 33 | 27 |
| Jose Quintana | 1-7 | -1.24 | 22 | 26 |
| Barry Zito | 1-7 | -1.22 | 32 | 26 |
| James McDonald | 1-7 | -1.15 | 29 | 24 |
| Cliff Lee | 1-7 | -1.06 | 30 | 29 |
| Homer Bailey | 1-7 | -1.01 | 33 | 28 |
| Gavin Floyd | 1-7 | -1.00 | 29 | 26 |
| Brandon Morrow | 1-7 | -1.00 | 21 | 26 |
| Josh Johnson | 1-7 | -0.90 | 31 | 26 |
| Doug Fister | 1-7 | -0.83 | 26 | 26 |
| Jaime Garcia | 1-7 | -0.79 | 20 | 27 |
| Kevin Correia | 1-7 | -0.75 | 28 | 23 |
| Alex Cobb | 1-7 | -0.58 | 23 | 26 |
An intriguing (to me) idea I have here is to use this data as a way of judging a manager's skill in pulling a pitcher at the right time. That Zach McAllister was over three and half runs per game worse during the last seven batters he faced probably indicates that Terry Francona's hook should be a little quicker than Manny Acta's was.
Bad Finishers (Worst stretch = Last 7 Batters Faced)
| Pitcher | Worst Batters | Runs Worse | Starts | Last Batter |
| Zach McAllister | 19-25 | -3.62 | 22 | 25 |
| Chris Young | 19-25 | -2.72 | 20 | 25 |
| Luis Mendoza | 21-27 | -2.24 | 25 | 27 |
| Trevor Cahill | 20-26 | -1.68 | 32 | 26 |
| Felix Doubront | 19-25 | -1.58 | 29 | 25 |
| Marco Estrada | 18-24 | -1.48 | 23 | 24 |
| Derek Lowe | 21-27 | -1.45 | 21 | 27 |
| Joe Blanton | 21-27 | -1.43 | 30 | 27 |
| R.A. Dickey | 22-28 | -1.34 | 33 | 28 |
| Jordan Lyles | 19-25 | -1.34 | 25 | 25 |
| Rick Porcello | 20-26 | -1.19 | 31 | 26 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 20-26 | -1.04 | 32 | 26 |
| Bruce Chen | 19-25 | -0.96 | 34 | 25 |
| Jason Marquis | 20-26 | -0.96 | 22 | 26 |
| Scott Diamond | 21-27 | -0.86 | 27 | 27 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 19-25 | -0.82 | 32 | 25 |
| Michael Fiers | 19-25 | -0.73 | 22 | 25 |
| Kevin Millwood | 19-25 | -0.58 | 28 | 25 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 18-24 | -0.57 | 31 | 24 |
| Blake Beavan | 19-25 | -0.39 | 26 | 25 |
All pitchers, 2012:
Pitcher
|
Peak Batters
|
Runs Better
|
Worst Batters
|
Runs Worse
|
Starts
|
Last Batter
|
Henderson Alvarez
|
5-11
|
1.15
|
19-25
|
-0.80
|
31
|
26
|
Bronson Arroyo
|
3-9
|
0.65
|
10-16
|
-1.28
|
32
|
27
|
Homer Bailey
|
6-12
|
1.08
|
1-7
|
-1.01
|
33
|
28
|
Blake Beavan
|
14-20
|
1.93
|
19-25
|
-0.39
|
26
|
25
|
Josh Beckett
|
2-8
|
1.12
|
10-16
|
-1.34
|
28
|
27
|
Erik Bedard
|
3-9
|
0.90
|
10-16
|
-1.77
|
24
|
24
|
Chad Billingsley
|
9-15
|
1.05
|
2-8
|
-0.74
|
25
|
26
|
Joe Blanton
|
14-20
|
1.29
|
21-27
|
-1.43
|
30
|
27
|
Clay Buchholz
|
22-28
|
0.98
|
2-8
|
-1.56
|
29
|
29
|
Mark Buehrle
|
14-20
|
0.51
|
19-25
|
-1.10
|
31
|
27
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
5-11
|
0.92
|
20-26
|
-1.25
|
32
|
27
|
A.J. Burnett
|
13-19
|
0.93
|
20-26
|
-1.47
|
31
|
28
|
Trevor Cahill
|
5-11
|
1.71
|
20-26
|
-1.68
|
32
|
26
|
Matt Cain
|
17-23
|
0.81
|
21-27
|
-1.10
|
32
|
28
|
Chris Capuano
|
6-12
|
0.78
|
19-25
|
-1.32
|
33
|
26
|
Wei-Yin Chen
|
5-11
|
0.96
|
20-26
|
-1.04
|
32
|
26
|
Bruce Chen
|
14-20
|
1.38
|
19-25
|
-0.96
|
34
|
25
|
Alex Cobb
|
14-20
|
0.77
|
1-7
|
-0.58
|
23
|
26
|
Bartolo Colon
|
15-21
|
0.70
|
9-15
|
-1.11
|
24
|
28
|
Kevin Correia
|
7-13
|
1.57
|
1-7
|
-0.75
|
28
|
23
|
Johnny Cueto
|
20-26
|
0.44
|
13-19
|
-0.78
|
33
|
27
|
Yu Darvish
|
3-9
|
0.94
|
10-16
|
-1.05
|
29
|
28
|
Ryan Dempster
|
3-9
|
1.43
|
10-16
|
-1.63
|
28
|
27
|
Ross Detwiler
|
16-22
|
0.71
|
10-16
|
-0.55
|
27
|
24
|
Scott Diamond
|
6-12
|
0.94
|
21-27
|
-0.86
|
27
|
27
|
R.A. Dickey
|
1-7
|
1.24
|
22-28
|
-1.34
|
33
|
28
|
Felix Doubront
|
5-11
|
0.99
|
19-25
|
-1.58
|
29
|
25
|
Nathan Eovaldi
|
15-21
|
1.44
|
10-16
|
-0.98
|
22
|
25
|
Marco Estrada
|
1-7
|
1.08
|
18-24
|
-1.48
|
23
|
24
|
Scott Feldman
|
12-18
|
0.98
|
4-10
|
-2.10
|
21
|
25
|
Michael Fiers
|
4-10
|
0.69
|
19-25
|
-0.73
|
22
|
25
|
Doug Fister
|
17-23
|
0.59
|
1-7
|
-0.83
|
26
|
26
|
Gavin Floyd
|
14-20
|
0.84
|
1-7
|
-1.00
|
29
|
26
|
Jeff Francis
|
14-20
|
1.77
|
1-7
|
-1.96
|
24
|
21
|
Yovani Gallardo
|
16-22
|
2.08
|
1-7
|
-1.36
|
33
|
27
|
Jaime Garcia
|
17-23
|
0.70
|
1-7
|
-0.79
|
20
|
27
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
15-21
|
0.85
|
19-25
|
-0.82
|
32
|
25
|
Zack Greinke
|
15-21
|
0.82
|
20-26
|
-0.67
|
34
|
27
|
Jeremy Guthrie
|
18-24
|
1.93
|
11-17
|
-2.98
|
29
|
26
|
Roy Halladay
|
6-12
|
0.85
|
20-26
|
-1.97
|
25
|
27
|
Cole Hamels
|
5-11
|
0.55
|
16-22
|
-1.01
|
31
|
28
|
Jason Hammel
|
15-21
|
0.69
|
8-14
|
-0.47
|
20
|
24
|
Tommy Hanson
|
5-11
|
1.27
|
10-16
|
-1.51
|
31
|
24
|
J.A. Happ
|
14-20
|
1.15
|
2-8
|
-1.15
|
24
|
24
|
Aaron Harang
|
5-11
|
0.91
|
11-17
|
-1.08
|
31
|
26
|
Dan Haren
|
10-16
|
0.75
|
3-9
|
-0.91
|
30
|
25
|
Lucas Harrell
|
4-10
|
0.91
|
10-16
|
-1.36
|
32
|
26
|
Matt Harrison
|
3-9
|
0.67
|
21-27
|
-0.99
|
32
|
28
|
Jeremy Hellickson
|
5-11
|
0.42
|
18-24
|
-0.57
|
31
|
24
|
Felix Hernandez
|
5-11
|
0.72
|
15-21
|
-0.52
|
33
|
29
|
Luke Hochevar
|
14-20
|
0.89
|
7-13
|
-1.55
|
32
|
26
|
Derek Holland
|
2-8
|
1.46
|
20-26
|
-2.14
|
27
|
28
|
Tim Hudson
|
3-9
|
0.88
|
20-26
|
-1.62
|
28
|
27
|
Phil Hughes
|
4-10
|
1.39
|
9-15
|
-1.59
|
32
|
27
|
Tommy Hunter
|
1-7
|
1.50
|
13-19
|
-3.35
|
20
|
26
|
Edwin Jackson
|
4-10
|
1.03
|
11-17
|
-1.11
|
31
|
27
|
Ubaldo Jimenez
|
4-10
|
1.17
|
11-17
|
-0.86
|
31
|
26
|
Josh Johnson
|
18-24
|
0.84
|
1-7
|
-0.90
|
31
|
26
|
Kyle Kendrick
|
20-26
|
1.34
|
1-7
|
-2.31
|
25
|
26
|
Ian Kennedy
|
3-9
|
1.03
|
10-16
|
-1.59
|
33
|
28
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
4-10
|
0.98
|
11-17
|
-1.38
|
33
|
28
|
Hiroki Kuroda
|
14-20
|
0.87
|
20-26
|
-1.15
|
33
|
27
|
Mat Latos
|
5-11
|
1.52
|
19-25
|
-1.03
|
33
|
26
|
Mike Leake
|
4-10
|
1.26
|
11-17
|
-1.52
|
30
|
27
|
Cliff Lee
|
14-20
|
1.01
|
1-7
|
-1.06
|
30
|
29
|
Jon Lester
|
1-7
|
1.28
|
11-17
|
-2.38
|
33
|
27
|
Tim Lincecum
|
15-21
|
0.68
|
2-8
|
-0.84
|
33
|
26
|
Francisco Liriano
|
7-13
|
1.13
|
3-9
|
-0.94
|
28
|
23
|
Kyle Lohse
|
15-21
|
1.03
|
11-17
|
-0.59
|
33
|
26
|
Derek Lowe
|
5-11
|
1.40
|
21-27
|
-1.45
|
21
|
27
|
Jordan Lyles
|
15-21
|
1.23
|
19-25
|
-1.34
|
25
|
25
|
Lance Lynn
|
4-10
|
1.34
|
10-16
|
-1.17
|
29
|
25
|
Paul Maholm
|
3-9
|
0.79
|
11-17
|
-1.58
|
31
|
26
|
Shaun Marcum
|
15-21
|
0.90
|
2-8
|
-1.16
|
21
|
26
|
Jason Marquis
|
5-11
|
1.87
|
20-26
|
-0.96
|
22
|
26
|
Justin Masterson
|
2-8
|
1.47
|
12-18
|
-1.56
|
34
|
27
|
Zach McAllister
|
11-17
|
1.89
|
19-25
|
-3.62
|
22
|
25
|
James McDonald
|
5-11
|
1.26
|
1-7
|
-1.15
|
29
|
24
|
Luis Mendoza
|
6-12
|
0.85
|
21-27
|
-2.24
|
25
|
27
|
Wade Miley
|
5-11
|
1.33
|
16-22
|
-1.61
|
29
|
27
|
Kevin Millwood
|
5-11
|
0.65
|
19-25
|
-0.58
|
28
|
25
|
Tom Milone
|
14-20
|
0.31
|
11-17
|
-1.28
|
31
|
26
|
Mike Minor
|
5-11
|
1.26
|
13-19
|
-1.22
|
30
|
24
|
Matt Moore
|
1-7
|
1.08
|
10-16
|
-1.46
|
31
|
25
|
Brandon Morrow
|
11-17
|
1.43
|
1-7
|
-1.00
|
21
|
26
|
Jonathon Niese
|
15-21
|
1.02
|
2-8
|
-0.94
|
30
|
27
|
Ricky Nolasco
|
5-11
|
0.75
|
10-16
|
-0.55
|
31
|
27
|
Bud Norris
|
6-12
|
0.79
|
13-19
|
-1.39
|
29
|
26
|
Ivan Nova
|
5-11
|
0.87
|
17-23
|
-0.98
|
28
|
27
|
Jarrod Parker
|
11-17
|
0.57
|
5-11
|
-0.87
|
29
|
27
|
Jake Peavy
|
14-20
|
1.02
|
21-27
|
-1.64
|
32
|
28
|
Drew Pomeranz
|
5-11
|
2.20
|
11-17
|
-3.30
|
22
|
19
|
Rick Porcello
|
5-11
|
1.07
|
20-26
|
-1.19
|
31
|
26
|
David Price
|
7-13
|
0.42
|
16-22
|
-0.95
|
31
|
27
|
Jose Quintana
|
20-26
|
0.77
|
1-7
|
-1.24
|
22
|
26
|
Clayton Richard
|
8-14
|
1.88
|
19-25
|
-2.05
|
33
|
28
|
Wandy Rodriguez
|
18-24
|
1.20
|
2-8
|
-2.32
|
33
|
27
|
Ricky Romero
|
9-15
|
1.26
|
3-9
|
-1.06
|
32
|
27
|
C.C. Sabathia
|
2-8
|
0.67
|
9-15
|
-1.17
|
28
|
30
|
Chris Sale
|
7-13
|
0.89
|
19-25
|
-1.85
|
29
|
27
|
Jeff Samardzija
|
17-23
|
1.09
|
10-16
|
-1.35
|
28
|
26
|
Anibal Sanchez
|
5-11
|
1.06
|
18-24
|
-0.98
|
31
|
27
|
Ervin Santana
|
14-20
|
1.70
|
8-14
|
-1.43
|
30
|
27
|
Johan Santana
|
7-13
|
2.02
|
10-16
|
-0.76
|
21
|
24
|
Joe Saunders
|
3-9
|
1.59
|
11-17
|
-3.09
|
28
|
27
|
Max Scherzer
|
12-18
|
0.29
|
16-22
|
-1.07
|
32
|
26
|
James Shields
|
22-28
|
0.67
|
16-22
|
-1.12
|
33
|
29
|
Stephen Strasburg
|
3-9
|
0.56
|
10-16
|
-1.12
|
28
|
24
|
Jason Vargas
|
5-11
|
1.57
|
16-22
|
-1.42
|
33
|
27
|
Justin Verlander
|
3-9
|
1.26
|
10-16
|
-0.90
|
33
|
29
|
Ryan Vogelsong
|
17-23
|
0.58
|
10-16
|
-0.84
|
31
|
26
|
Edinson Volquez
|
15-21
|
0.58
|
11-17
|
-0.69
|
32
|
26
|
Chris Volstad
|
16-22
|
1.49
|
10-16
|
-1.19
|
21
|
25
|
Adam Wainwright
|
6-12
|
1.06
|
11-17
|
-0.75
|
32
|
26
|
Jered Weaver
|
7-13
|
0.97
|
11-17
|
-0.89
|
30
|
27
|
Jake Westbrook
|
6-12
|
1.26
|
17-23
|
-1.02
|
28
|
27
|
Alex White
|
14-20
|
0.52
|
11-17
|
-0.75
|
20
|
21
|
C.J. Wilson
|
7-13
|
0.66
|
12-18
|
-1.05
|
34
|
27
|
Randy Wolf
|
7-13
|
1.00
|
19-25
|
-1.18
|
26
|
26
|
Travis Wood
|
3-9
|
0.85
|
10-16
|
-1.33
|
26
|
25
|
Vance Worley
|
4-10
|
2.27
|
14-20
|
-1.78
|
23
|
27
|
Chris Young
|
5-11
|
2.11
|
19-25
|
-2.72
|
20
|
25
|
Carlos Zambrano
|
16-22
|
0.51
|
19-25
|
-1.29
|
20
|
26
|
Jordan Zimmermann
|
4-10
|
0.62
|
16-22
|
-0.86
|
32
|
26
|
Barry Zito
|
17-23
|
1.00
|
1-7
|
-1.22
|
32
|
26
|
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